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The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on bank credit risk management
Lukášková, Karolína ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
iv Abstract This diploma thesis examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the bank credit risk in the European Union. The analysis is performed using two sets of panel data. The first set contains data at the bank-level between 2012 and 2018 and is obtained from BankFocus batabase and the second set of data is obtained from the EBA Risk dashboard and contains data at the country-level between 2014 and 2020. Both datasets contain bank-specific variables and macroeconomic variables. We use the variables Cost of risk, Total capital ratio, Tier 1 ratio and NPE ratio as dependent variables. As representatives of the COVID-19 shock, we use the number of people infected with this disease, the number of deaths from this disease and the Stringency Index. We employ the GMM system for our analysis and test 5 hypotheses. We did not reject 3 hypotheses, namely that Cost of risk is a key determinant of credit risk and that the crisis caused by COVID-19 affects the variables Capitalo ratio and NPE ratio. We further concluded that the variables representing COVID-19 do not have a negative effect on credit risk, mainly due to the interventions of the ECB and the IASB. JEL Classification C12, C33, G01, G21 Keywords bank, COVID-19 crisis, credit risk management, Stringency index Title Author's e-mail Supervisor's e-mail...
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The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on bank corporate credit risk management in the US and the UK
Kořínek, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Kraicová, Lucie (referee)
The thesis deals with bank corporate credit risk management during the COVID-19 crisis in the US and the UK. As a proxy of corporate credit risk, we employ corporate aggregate probability of default provided by Credit Benchmark. To measure the impact of the crisis on corporate aggregate probability of default, we use variables representing macroeconomic and financial market environments. Furthermore, as proxies for the COVID-19 shock and governments' fiscal measures, we employ COVID-19 stringency index and dummy variable(s), respectively. Our data set consists of 60 monthly observations, and by its structure is suitable for time series analysis. The analysis is based on Ordinary Least Squares, Two Stage Least Squares, and Generalized Method of Moments estimations. The results show that fiscal measures "artificially" decreased change of corporate aggregate probability of default in both countries. We recommend that the respective bank credit risk managers incorporate proxies representing fiscal measures in their estimation of through-the-cycle probability of default that serves as an input for calculating regulatory capital. Besides, a variable representing stringency index is found to be significant in the US's model. Thus, we recommend using such a proxy as input for stress testing in the US.
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Current regulation governing acquisition financing
Petrů, Jan ; Kohajda, Michael (advisor) ; Sejkora, Tomáš (referee)
Current regulation governing acquisition financing Abstract The thesis deals with financing of share deal acquisition operations. The first chapter points out idiosyncrasies of acquisition operations, providing context for the rest of the thesis. The second chapter deals with loan financing, one of the two financing methods described. The chapter starts off with Czech Civil Code's rules governing loans and goes on to provide an overview of stipulations used in corporate banking practice, including the usual arrangement of rights and obligations of lenders and borrower in case of syndicated loans. A subchapter about credit risk rounds off the second chapter. Not restricted to public law regulation, it describes derivatives used to hedge against credit risk and touches upon the influence of regulation on cost of loan financing. The third chapter is about bond financing. It offers a robust overview of Czech rules governing bonds as nominate debt securities and their issue. The consequent subchapter on placement of bonds handled by an investment firm serves as an equivalent of the banking practice- focused subchapter. Subjects that perform various tasks after placement in order to simplify the administration of a given issue are a topic which completes the third chapter. The conclusion of the thesis sets out...
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The impact of macroeconomic factors on financial institutions credit risk during the global financial crises, case in Czech Republic
Jusufi, Gent ; Pečená, Magda (advisor) ; Rippel, Milan (referee)
This study aims to estimate the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans (NPL ratio), its determinants and its response to different macroeconomic shocks. As the last financial crises had negative impact on the economy of many countries of the world, we have to strive for preventive measures that would help us to fully or at least partly avoid future crises. It should be achieved by sound risk management practices of all financial institutions. Important part of these risk management practices shall be - among others - stress tests that would test the health of the institution under severe conditions and negative shocks. For this study the vector autoregression model (VAR methodology) is used to see the response of credit risk (in terms of NPL ratio) to macroeconomic shocks in the Czech Republic. The variables used for this study are quarterly time series data of the period from 2002 to 2011 (GDP, inflation rate, unemployment rate, koruna exchange rate (CZK/USD), and interest rate). For each of these variables the impulse response function was created, to show the impact of macroeconomic shocks and the speed of adjustment of NPL ratio to these shocks. Keywords: Financial Crises, Credit Risk Management, Non-performing loans, Macroeconomic Shocks, Czech Republic, VARs
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Credit risk management in banks
Pětníková, Tereza ; Blahová, Naděžda (advisor) ; Šedivý, Jan (referee)
The subject of this diploma thesis is managing credit risk in banks, as the most significant risk faced by banks. The aim of this work is to define the basic techniques, tools and methods that are used by banks to manage credit risk. The first part of this work focuses on defining these procedures and describes the entire process of credit risk management, from the definition of credit risk, describing credit strategy and policy, organizational structure, defining the most used credit risk mitigation tools to the regulatory requirements for credit risk management. The second part gives a more detailed view to credit risk measurement and evaluation and possibilities of credit risk hedging. Last part presents credit risk management in practise illustrated by the example of chosen bank.
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Predictive Modeling in Credit Risk Management
Švastalová, Iva ; Dlouhá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Bouda, Milan (referee)
The diploma thesis is focused on predictive modeling in credit risk management. Banks and financial institutions are mainly interested in it to estimate the probability of client's default in order to make a decision about which client will be accepted and which client will be rejected. The theoretical part includes an introduction of credit scoring and a description of discrete choice models. The linear probability model, the probit model and the logit model are described in detail. The logit model is afterwards used for the prediction of client's default. The practical part is focused on a statistical description of the dataset and a description of how to work with it before we start with the development of the credit scoring model. After that follows the estimation of the model on testing sample, its testing and the estimation of the model on full sample with a description of individual steps of calculation and outputs of the program SPSS.
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Credit Risk Management in the Leasing Company
Václavíková, Petra ; Půlpánová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Hradil, Dušan (referee)
This thesis is focused on the credit risk management in the leasing company. Firstly, the attention is paid to leasing market in the Czech Republic and leasing by itself. Afterwards are described risks which leasing companies during their business activities are exposed. Emphasis is placed mainly on the credit risk management. Major part of the thesis deals with ex-ante and ex-post credit risk analysis in leasing business. At first is analyzed approval of the business transaction. Below the process of administration of debtor's statement in the leasing company is analyzed. Final case study performs the practical application of methods and procedures in the credit risk management.
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